The Oscar Project
Last night the Golden Globes were broadcast live on NBC and awards were dolled out in many categories that mirror those that will be decided on by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences next month. That said, I wanted to take a look at who received awards on the film side and see what that might mean for Oscar nominations which are due out on January 22nd (just over two weeks!)
One important think to point out is that the voting for nominations for the Oscars started today so those final lists of nominees are starting to take shape as I write this. The initial voting ends next Monday, so the nominees will be decided within the week.
I'll start with the more "minor" awards and work to the big boys.
Original Song and Score
All of the individual songs nominated for Golden Globes are on the short list for the Oscars with the exception of "Requiem For A Private War" (Annie Lennox) from A Private War. I feel like Golden Globe winner "Shallow" (A Star Is Born) is a strong front runner and will surely receive a nomination along with "Girl in the Movies" (Dumplin'). Where the Oscars might depart a bit is that I think at least one of the songs from Mary Poppins Returns will make the cut for nomination leading to "Revelation" (Boy Erased) and/or "All The Stars" (Black Panther) falling out of the running.
And on a personal note, I sincerely hope that "A Place Called Slaughter Race" (Ralph Breaks the Internet) gets a nomination if for no other reason than to see someone perform it at the Oscar ceremony. It's not the best original song of the year by any stretch, but I would get a nice laugh out of that performance.
For the Best Original Score, all five Golden Globe nominees are on the Oscar short list and I expect the Oscar nominations to look very similar to the Globes. Potential films that I could see jumping into the race do include If Beale Street Could Talk and Ready Player One.
Best Foreign Language Film
I hate to say this race is already over, but everything points to Alfonso Cuarón's Roma as the runaway winner in this category (along with some other categories). Only one film from last night's nominees does not appear on the Oscar short list (Girl, Belgium) but I don't think it really matters. Any film other than Roma winning this Academy Award would be viewed as an enormous upset.
Best Animated Feature
In what some may have considered a mild upset, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse nabbed the Golden Globe for Best Animated Motion Picture last night. I have yet to see the film but when I talk to people who have, they say it is fantastic.
While there is no short list for this category with the Oscars, I feel confident that the nominees will look similar there to last night's options with Spider-Man, Incredibles 2, and Ralph Breaks the Internet being the front runners.
With two categories splitting nominations at the Oscars, I think it is a safe bet that we will see most of the Golden Globe nominees in the running at the Oscars as well. I thought for sure Vice would end up taking this award last night, so it came as a little surprise that Green Book ended up winning.
The good news is that several other films will receive nominations at the Oscars. I believe Roma, The Favourite, and Vice all fall into the Best Original Screenplay category while If Beale Street Could Talk and Green Book both fall into the Best Adapted Screenplay category. I could see the latter being a toss-up between the two films, depending on what else is nominated in the category.
For Best Original Screenplay, I could see it being a toss-up between Vice and Roma.
Best Supporting Actor/Actress
I was pleased to see Mahershala Ali and Regina King take home these awards last night and could very well see them as the final recipients at the Oscars, especially since Ali won two years ago in the same category for Moonlight.
Overall, I have no arguments with the nominees at the Golden Globes and expect the lists for both actor and actress to look very similar at the Oscars.
Here's where things start to get dicey with two different categories at the Globes narrowing down to one at the Oscars. The two winners from last night (Christian Bale for Vice and Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody) are sure to receive nominations and I can see Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) and John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) receiving the other three nods.
This would leave out Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun), John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), and Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased).
Could this be the year that Glenn Close finally wins an Oscar? I think it may well be.
As with the men, Best Actress at the Oscars will pull from two categories at the Globes. Again, I think Close is a shoe-in for a nomination but I'm not as sure about Olivia Colman who won in the Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy last night. At this point I think the Oscar field will include Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Rosamund Pike (A Private War), and Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade).
This leaves out Colman (The Favourite), Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Charlize Theron (Tully), Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians), and Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?).
This is one of the categories that I feel is a completely open race at this point. I expect the list of nominees to be very similar at the Oscars as they were last night at the Globes with the possible exception being no nomination for Peter Farrelly (Green Book).
Of the bunch, only one has previously won the Oscar for Best Director, Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity in 2015. Adam McKay was also nominated in 2015 for The Big Short.
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) is a first time director and Peter Farrelly (half of the famous Farrelly brothers) is a first time solo director. Both Farrelly and McKay have filmographies filled with well known comedies including Dumb and Dumber (Farrelly), Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy (McKay), There's Something About Mary (Farrelly), and Step Brothers (McKay), so it's interesting to see them both getting recognition for their directing with more "serious" films.
The outlier here is Spike Lee who has been directing for years, but often has a large gap between big projects. He has been nominated twice before (Do the Right Thing for Best Original Screenplay and 4 Little Girls for Best Documentary Feature) but has never won. As with Glenn Close, I think this might be Lee's time and hope that he is able to capture the prize at the Oscars.
As with the actor categories, the Globes has two divisions while the Oscars only has one, but can nominate up to 10 films. I'm not going to comment much here other than to list my selections for Best Picture nominations (in alphabetical order):
I'm just a film buff who wants to watch great movies. Where else to find the best, than the list of those nominated by the Academy each year?